FanPost

SEC OOC Predictions (by a Pac-10er)

Recently I asked TET for your thoughts on the Pac-10 and Pac-10 related issues.  Today I come to you with predictions.  I listed the Out of Conference games for the SEC, then made guesses regarding the outcomes.  I am quite certain my predictions will be wrong as although I am a fan of college football, it is hard to keep pace with 120 differents teams, and my heart and knowledge base lays within the Pac-10 (my having a 'knowledge base' is debatable).  In any case, I am seeking knowledge, so please respond.

For each game I rated it as either: Definite Win, Probable Win, 50/50, Probable Lose, Definite Loss.  These are guesses based primarily on nothing more than a hunch.  Let me know if you agree, disagree, wish I would keep my thoughts to myself.

If you are curious, here is the link to my Pac-10 Projections

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2009/4/22/849266/pac-10-ooc-projections

In Alphabetical Order: (Wins - Losses - 50/50)

 

ALABAMA: (3-0-1)

Virginia Tech (Neutral Site) - 50/50

Florida International - Definite Win

North Texas - Definite Win

Chattanooga - Definite Win

If I had to chose a winner between V. Tech and Alabama I'd choose the latter, but since I gave myself the 50/50 option I'm taking it.

 

ARKANSAS: (4-0-0)

Missouri St. - Definite Win

Texas A&M (Neutral Site) - Probable Win

Eastern Michigan -Definite Win

Troy - Definite Win

I think Arkansas is going to be better this year.  It seems they struggled adapting to the new coach at the beginning of last year, but improved drastically over the second half (I still love the beat down they gave Tulsa).  However, I don't think they will be good enough to challenge for the SEC West.

 

AUBURN: (3-0-1)

Lousianan Tech - Definite Win

West Virginia - 50/50

Ball St. - Probable Win

Furman - Definite Win

The only reason I'm saying Ball St is a probable and not definite win, is their success last year, this makes them an unkown to me.  If they play 5 times, I think Auburn wins at least 4.  As for West Virginia they, like Auburn, are tough to gauge as you are both undergoing coaching and structural changes (West Virginia's change is life without both Rich Rod (One year removed) and Pat White).

 

FLORIDA: (4-0-0)

Charleston Southern - Definite Win

Troy - Definite Win

Florida International - Definite Win

Florida St. - Probable Win

With FSU I have adopted a 'skeptical until proven otherwise' approach regarding their ability reassert themselves as a dominant college football team.  As for Florida, they are definitely among the best.

 

GEORGIA: (2-1-1)

At Oklahoma St - 50/50

Arizona St. - Definite Win

Tennessee Tech - Definite Win

At Georgia Tech - Probable Loss

Georgia is going be good, but they are losing a lot of star power.  At least, they scheduled some quality OOC games.

 

KENTUCKY: (4-0-0)

At Miami (OH) - Probable Win

Louisville - Probable Win

Louisiana-Monroe - Definite Win

Eastern Kentucky - Definite Win

I know Kentucky was above average in '07, and had a good D in '08.  2009?  Don't know much about them, but their OOC is weak.

 

LSU: (4-0-0)

At Washington - Definite Win

Louisiana-Lafayette - Definite Win

Tulane - Definite Win

Louisiana Tech - Definite Win

Winner of the Missing Cajones Award regarding scheduling, you might say they figured Washington would at least be decent.  But, they scheduled them midway through last season, so they knew they'd be an easy victory.

 

MISSISSIPPI: (4-0-0)

At Memphis - Probable Win

Southeastern Louisiana - Definite Win

UAB - Definite Win

Northern Arizona - Definite Win

Northern Arizona?  Granted its a money game, but you can't find a team closer to home to play?

 

MISSISSIPPI ST: (3-1-0)

Jackson St. - Definite Win

Georgia Tech - Probable Loss

Houston - Probable Win

At Middle Tennessee St. - Definite Win

I hear Houston is supposed to be pretty good this year, but I am generally doubtful of non-BCS conferences not named the Mountain West.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA: (2-0-2)

At North Carolina St. - 50/50

Florida Atlantic - Definite Win

South Carolina St - Definite Win

Clemson - 50/50

I think North Carolina St is going to be decent to good, and don't know what to make of Clemson after their disappointing season and subsequent coaching change.

TENNESSEE: (4-0-0)

Western Kentucky - Definite Win

UCLA - Probable Win

Ohio - Definite Win

Memphis - Probable Win

I don't think Tennessee is going to be that good, but looking at their OOC schedule who can beat them?  Furthermore, who can beat them at home?

 

VANDERBILT: (3-1-0)

Western Carolina - Probable Win

At Rice - Probable Win

At Army - Definite Win

Georgia Tech - Probable Loss

Vanderbilt has built themselves up to medicority over the past few years.  I think this trend will continue.

 

Some concluding stats:

Totals: (40-3-5)

The SEC again plays a mostly boring OOC schedule, sorry, didn't mean to harp.  The home/away/neutral break down is as follows: 38, 8, 2.  The SEC should finish somewhere between 45-3 and 40-8.  In either case, the numbers sound good, but there are a lot of cupcakes.  Ironically all three losses are at the hands of Georgia Tech.  I don't think Georgia Tech is going to be amazing, but they have the upper hand in those match-ups (I think).  Similarly, the head-to-head match-up between the SEC and Pac-10 should finish 3-0 in favor of the SEC.  I don't believe the SEC is a vastly superior conference (you are very good, and I'm not saying the Pac-10 is better, just that the gap isn't as large as 3-0 record might suggest), rather look at the match-ups.  The 3 teams Pac-10 teams participating won an average of 3 games last season, and the better two are on the road.  Of the 5 50/50 games I would say that the Alabama/Virgia Tech match-up is the most important as both have Top Ten aspirations, and likely pits two Top 3 teams from either conference head to head.

 

Anyways, feel free to correct me....

 

We're all just trying to have a good time here. Don't be a jerk, and we won't have a problem with you. War Eagle!

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