Last week was an outright disaster. 1-3 along with an outright loss in the LOCK OF THE WEEK. I'm done with betting on Tuberville. We're apparently dealing with post-2006 Tubby that only wanted to score enough to win. He is interested in nothing else. Oregon State needed a HORRENDOUS pick 6 while trailing with 150 seconds left just to beat a terrible San Diego State team. Let's not even talk about whatever it was that Arkansas State did in Memphis. Sometimes you go to Memphis and bad things happen to you. Moving on.
For this week, I think Vegas is starting to get a better handle on most teams. You also have fewer and fewer of the massive lines as teams move into conference play. Here's what I'm taking this week.
- LSU (+3) over GEORGIA: I'm probably falling victim to a recency bias here, but I like what LSU can do in all three phases. Conversely, I don't trust Georgia's defense, and their special teams kept North Texas in the game last week. Honestly I just don't believe in Georgia as a top 10 team. Maybe not even top 15. I like LSU to win this one outright.
- Arizona (+10) over WASHINGTON: I'll be honest, this one is mostly coming from the F/+ side of things. Both methods like Arizona to win outright. Given that, I'll gladly take the 10 points. I like even more that this line has moved 3 points towards the Huskies during the week. Washington has wins over teams everyone has heard of, but this Arizona team can move the football well. That said, Bishop Sanky still scares the crap out of me.
- Wyoming (-11.5) over TEXAS STATE: I worry a little with Wyoming going on the road (they get a big boost at home with the altitude), but they just carpet bombed Air Force. They're run at a very fast pace. I think this line is just a little low for how well the Cowboys have been playing.
- Texas A&M (-14) over ARKANSAS: LOCK OF THE WEEK. The big news on this one was that random places had Texas A&M favored by only 3. I'm honestly not sure where it came from, but I really don't see the Hogs slowing down Johnny Manziel after failing to slow down Gary Nova and Rutgers. Arkansas can and will run the football well, but that's not going to matter when A&M crosses the goal-line 8 times.
You read that right. FOUR ROAD TEAMS TO COVER. The upside is that these are all teams led by veteran coaches. At least that's what I'll tell myself if it all goes to hell.
With the bye, there's no Auburn pick this week. If you want me to pick the rest of the games from teams in the state, I'll take Ole Miss and the 16, USA to cover the 20 (barely), Vandy to cover against UAB, and Troy to roll over for Duke.
"I wouldn't touch you with a....THIRTY-NINE-AND-A-HALF FOOT POLE!" game of the week:
- Florida (-13) vs. KENTUCKY: There are just so many variables we can't predict in this one. How terrible is Kentucky? How will Tyler Murphy fare in his first start on the road? Will Kentucky's Air Raid test a Florida defense that is without Dominique Easley, its best player? Will Kentucky ever beat Florida again? With that many questions and that big of a line, I don't want any part of this one.