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Auburn baseball: Stats make the case against John Pawlowski

2013-05-22T18:58:02Z

The following stats show the state of the Auburn baseball program over the last three years (since the arrival of the new bats) under head coach John Pawlowski.

**Offense**
	Avg.	OB%	SLG%	Hits	XB Hits	HR	Runs/Gm
2011	.296	.380	.421	596	166	39	5.8
2012	.304	.386	.432	610	167	35	5.9
2013	.275	.389	.385	508	137	31	4.9

**Pitching**
	ERA	WHIP	BA against	Hits	BB	HBP	K	HR	Saves
2011	5.09	1.60	.294	599	226	50	412	29	15
2012	3.92	1.34	.261	513	184	34	322	29	14
2013	3.40	1.31	.250	458	189	37	318	21	18

**Fielding**
	Chances	Put-outs	Assists	Errors	Errors/gm	DP	Fielding %	SB allowed	Caught Stealing
2011	2,197	1,554	572	71	1.2	43	.968	33	27
2012	2,309	1,564	661	84	1.4	52	.964	42	37
2013	2,160	1,478	616	66	1.2	50	.969	27	25

**Situational records**
	Overall	SEC (tourney seed)	Non-conference	Midweek	SOS	SEC tourney	NCAA tourney
2011	29-29	14-16 (8)	15-13	6-7	15	0-2	N/A
2012	31-28	13-17 (10)	18-11	12-2	30	1-2	N/A
2013	33-23	13-17 (10)	20-6	9-3	30	0-1	??

OK, so a few words. Yes, pitching has steadily improved under Pawlowski over the last three years, and he should get credit for that. The staff is much better now than it was in 2011. But then again, he does have a pitching background, so it would be an utter failure if the pitching didn't improve. As far as offense goes, runs per game took a big drop this season. The biggest issue under Coach P, fielding, has been awful throughout his tenure, and 2013 is no exception.

What matters most, though, is wins and losses, and specifically, winning things like regular-season conference titles, conference tournaments, regionals and super regionals. Not only has Auburn not won anything of note in the last three years, the Tigers haven't come close. It would be one thing if this was Year 3 under Pawlowski, but it's Year 5. His program is in place, and it's not getting results.

Firing Pawlowski won't mean a thing if the right replacement isn't hired, and that's a serious question mark with Jay Jacobs running the show. Auburn might squeak into a regional this year, but does anyone expect the Tigers to make noise? Even going back to 2010, when Auburn won the SEC West and hosted a regional, the Tigers haven't stepped up in postseason play. That year, they were knocked out of the SEC tourney in three games and couldn't advance out of their own regional.

It's pretty clear that as long as Coach P is the man, Auburn won't be much of a contender.

Alabama 6, Auburn 3: Tigers' SEC tourney wrapped up in 1 game

2013-05-21T23:15:00Z

Despite knocking out Alabama (33-24, 14-14 SEC) starter Justin Kamplain on 75+ pitches through three innings, Auburn (33-23, 13-17) never fully capitalized on all their early baserunners, and fell to the Tide, 6-3, and out of the SEC Tournament, Tuesday at the Hoover Met.

Auburn led off the game with a single and hit batsman, then proceeded to leave them both on with an inning-ending strike-em-out, throw-em-out double play. Alabama also had their first two runners reach, and managed to push one across through a series of bunts and a RBI groundout, but they didn't have a hit.

The offense left two more on in the second, but in the third finally produced some runs. Patrick Savage doubled in a run, Dan Glevenyak hit a sac fly to give Auburn the lead, and then a botched play by Kamplain between the mound and first let Jordan Ebert drive in Savage on what was ruled a single.

Tigers starter Conner Kendrick pitched awfully solid, navigating a few bumps along the way, and reached the sixth only allowing one more run on an RBI single by Tide catcher Brett Booth. He was pulled from the rubber in the sixth after Alabama led off the frame with two singles and then a game-tying double. However, with runners on second and third, Reid Carter managed to get out of the threat with a strikeout, fielder's choice out at the plate and a groundout to first.

Back-to-back singles in the top of the seventh gave Auburn two more men on, with just one out, but a heart-wrenchingly beautiful 6-4-3 double play turned by the Tide ended Auburn's threat, and in retrospect seemed like the baseball gods mocking Auburn's fielding problems that would eventually doom them.

The bottom of the eighth is where Alabama really sucked the wind from behind the Tigers' sails, putting across three and leaving the Tigers' scrambling for an improbable run-per-out ninth. Bama's big inning was led off with a strikeout and single for the well-performing reliever Carter. The only hit he allowed in his 2 1/3 innings was enough to get him pulled for Terrance Dedrick. Alabama got a double, intentional walk, single, sac fly, and wild pitch to take the lead and then some.

In the last half inning Auburn was at bat, the Tiger hitters still seemed patient despite a couple of 0-2 counts and got long looks, but Damek Tomscha struck out and Blake Austin and Hunter Kelley grounded out.

While ten SEC teams still get to play on, Auburn will be sitting around with no games to play, waiting for Monday and the decision from the NCAA life/death committee. Even on the day that Finebaum is leaving Birmingham, Tigers fans can't celebrate thanks to a potentially season-ending loss at the hands of Alabama. In Hoover of all places. Thanks to fielding and hitting with runners on. It'll be a long wait til Monday.

SEC Baseball Tournament 2013: Auburn vs. Alabama preview

2013-05-21T01:00:41Z

Auburn opens its SEC Tournament campaign Tuesday against its biggest rival, as the Tigers face Alabama in the second game of the first session. The winner will advance to play LSU in the double-elimination round, and the loser will go home and nervously await the NCAA Tournament selection show.

Announced starters

	App-GS	IP	W-L	ERA	BAA	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
Auburn: LHP Conner Kendrick	18-8	75 1/3	5-3	2.03	.257	72	31	17	27	74	4
Alabama: LHP Justin Kamplain	19-5	51 2/3	1-0	4.53	.215	40	29	26	18	48	5

It's not much of a surprise that John Pawlowski will send Kendrick to the mound. He's been the Tigers' Friday starter for weeks, and as his numbers indicate, he's been one of Auburn's most reliable arms. In fact, Kendrick's breakout performance came in a 6-3 win against Alabama in the Capital City Classic on March 5. He pitched the final six innings, allowing just one walk while striking out eight. However, in a home start against the Crimson Tide on March 28, he gave up six runs -- just two earned -- on nine hits and four walks with six Ks in 5 1/3 innings. The Tigers lost that game, 6-2, their seventh straight defeat to open SEC play.

In his last two starts, a 7-4 win over Florida and a 3-0 victory against Arkansas, Kendrick pitched a combined 13 2/3 innings and allowed four runs -- one earned -- on 11 hits and two walks, and he struck out 11. The Gators and Razorbacks don't have the most intimidating offenses in the SEC, ranking 10th and 11th, respectively, in the SEC in batting average, and eighth and 10th, respectively, in runs scored. But Alabama isn't an offensive juggernaut, either. The Crimson Tide rank 12th in batting average (.260) and sixth in runs scored (297).

Kamplain has made 19 appearances for Alabama, but only five of those have been starts. His ERA isn't all that impressive, but opponents are only hitting .215 against him. The logical assumption to seeing those numbers is that Kamplain has some issues with the strike zone, and that's correct. He's walked 18 batters in 51 2/3 innings, which isn't terrible, but his 11 hit batters leads the team and is tied for second in the conference. Obviously, the key to success against the sophomore is patience at the plate.

Since moving into the Crimson Tide's rotation, Kamplain has had his ups and downs. In 30 1/3 innings as a starter, he has a 4.75 ERA and has given up 27 hits and 12 walks. He struck out 21 in those five games. Kamplain's best performance came against Texas A&M, when he allowed two runs on five hits and a walk in 7 1/3 innings. His worst line was against LSU -- 5 2/3 innings, seven earned runs, nine hits, two walks, five strikeouts.

The bullpens

**Auburn's primary relievers**
	App	IP	W-L	SV	ERA	BAA	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
Justin Camp	18	44 1/3	5-1	2	2.44	.248	40	15	12	19	28	2
Trey Cochran-Gill	20	41 2/3	1-1	2	3.02	.223	39	22	14	12	23	0
Reid Carter	14	20 1/3	1-1	1	2.66	.221	15	6	6	15	14	0
Chase Williamson	15	26	3-0	0	3.46	.290	29	13	10	6	19	1
Terrance Dedrick	22	39	4-2	10	3.23	.206	28	14	14	14	35	2

**Alabama's primary relievers**
	App	IP	W-L	SV	ERA	BAA	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
Jay Shaw	12	20 2/3	1-1	1	1.74	.206	14	4	4	11	9	0
Tucker Hawley	18	42	4-2	1	2.79	.245	37	16	13	17	27	2
Keaton Haack	21	34	1-1	1	3.44	.193	23	21	13	22	27	1
Jon Keller	16	53 1/3	3-6	0	5.23	.293	61	39	31	28	56	3
Ray Castillo	23	40 1/3	2-2	10	2.68	.218	31	13	12	26	40	2

If this one becomes a battle of the bullpens, Alabama probably has the advantage. Their relief pitchers generally have better numbers than Auburn's. Though, the Tide's go-to guys are a little more likely to give up the long ball, and the Tigers' bats have been enjoying a power surge lately. If either team is trying to hold a slim lead in the eighth or ninth, both closers appear to bring similar abilities to the mound. Dedrick's ERA is higher than Castillo's, but that's due to his early-season struggles. The junior from Tuscaloosa has been solid in recent appearances, picking up seven saves and a win in his last eight outings, all SEC victories for Auburn.

The lineups

**Auburn's top hitters**
	AB	Avg.	OB%	Slg%	H	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	K	GIDP
Garrett Cooper, 1B	186	.355	.481	.543	66	30	37	12	1	7	30	10
Cullen Wacker, LF	198	.318	.376	.419	63	23	34	12	1	2	33	2
Ryan Tella, CF	213	.263	.328	.366	46	42	37	11	1	3	47	5

Auburn has had its share of struggles at the plate this year, but the Tigers' hitters have been coming on strong lately. They average 4.9 runs per game for the season, but since the start of the Ole Miss series, that average is 5.4. In addition to Cooper and Wacker, who have been Auburn's best hitters all year, and Tella, whose average is down with too many Ks, but still has good production, second baseman Jordan Ebert and and right fielder Hunter Kelley have been coming up with some big hits lately. Over the last nine games, the two have combined for a .329 average with four doubles, three homers, 13 runs and 10 RBIs. Shortstop Dan Glevenyak has been hot, too, hitting his only three home runs of the season all in the last two weeks.

**Alabama's top hitters**
	AB	Avg.	OB%	Slg%	H	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	K	GIDP
Ben Moore, RF	217	.290	.364	.438	63	36	38	12	4	4	25	6
Brett Booth, C	204	.275	.373	.402	56	43	32	8	0	6	34	10
Austen Smith, 1B	195	.272	.343	.426	53	32	35	12	0	6	47	2

Alabama doesn't have any regular hitter currently batting over .300, which is pretty amazing considering the Crimson Tide don't rank near the bottom of the SEC in runs. Freshman center fielder Georgie Salem has enjoyed a nice season, hitting .278 with 30 runs and 25 RBIs, and second baseman Kyle Overstreet, another freshman, has a .284 average with 22 runs and 35 RBIs. As a team, the Tide doesn't really have any great strength on offense, but they've managed to score 5.3 runs per game this year, which was good enough for 14 SEC wins.

Team stats

	Auburn (SEC rank)	Alabama (SEC rank)
Batting average	.275 (8)	.260 (12)
On-base percentage	.359 (8)	.347 (12)
Runs	269 (11)	297 (6)
RBIs	243 (10)	262 (6)
Extra-base hits	136 (5)	109 (t-11)
Home runs	31 (t-5)	25 (10)
Stolen bases	33-of-54 (12)	51-of-77 (8)
Errors	64 (11)	54 (6)
ERA	3.36 (7)	3.69 (10)
BA against	.250 (6)	.260 (10)
Walks	185 (8)	231 (14)
Strikeouts	314 (14)	400 (7)
Saves	18 (t-4)	19 (3)

Based on those numbers, Auburn is a better team than Alabama in almost every way. However, the Tigers don't strike many hitters out, while the Tide rank in the middle of the SEC pack, and in the category that matters most, runs scored, Alabama easily outpaces Auburn.

Situational records

	Auburn	Alabama
Day	16-12	13-12
Neutral site	2-0	0-2
vs. LHP starter	12-8	15-5
Commits 2-plus errors	11-7	5-9
Opponent commits 2-plus errors	20-1	21-7
Scores 3-plus runs	32-5	31-13
Opponent scores 3-9 runs	22-17	18-20
Scores first	17-6	19-4

What do the records tell us? Well, when it comes to playing during the day, at neutral sites and against left-handed starting pitchers, Auburn and Alabama are pretty similar teams. The Tigers are undefeated at neutral sites, whereas the Crimson Tide are winless, but the sample size is too small to make any sort of assumptions. Alabama is a little better against lefties, and when scoring first, both teams are quite good. The big differences come in regard to the amount of runs being scored and errors committed.

Alabama is a better defensive team, but when the Crimson Tide have bad games in the field, they have a more difficult time overcoming the mistakes, while Auburn does a better job of overcoming multiple errors -- perhaps because the Tigers are more accustomed to doing so. When their opponents commit at least two errors, both teams unsurprisingly have good records, but Auburn is nearly flawless when opposing teams are sloppy in the field. Pawlowski's club punishes poor fielding.

The Tigers would rather play a high-scoring game. They're better than Alabama in games when opponents score between three and nine runs, and when Auburn scores at least three runs, the orange and blue are awfully tough to beat.

What's going to happen?

Honestly, it's impossible to say. Auburn and Alabama are really similar teams, and either could win. If the Crimson Tide aren't sharp in the field and it isn't a low-scoring pitchers' duel, expect Auburn to come out on top. But if the Tigers aren't patient at the plate and Alabama doesn't give them many extra outs, the Tide will probably emerge victorious.

SEC Baseball Tournament 2013: Auburn falls to Alabama in opening round

2013-05-20T20:19:28Z

The Tigers were eliminated by the Crimson Tide, 6-3, in a single-elimination game Tuesday.

With the regular season complete, the first-round matchups of the 2013 SEC Tournament have been set. Auburn will play Alabama in the second game of the morning session on Tuesday, a single-elimination contest.

Hold on to your butts.

The winner of the Iron Bowl-baseball-pacalypse will advance to double-elimination play and take on No. 2 seed LSU on Wednesday. The other single-elimination game in Auburn's side of the bracket features No. 6 Ole Miss against No. 11 Kentucky, with the winner moving on to face No. 3 Arkansas.

Auburn (33-22, 13-17 SEC) and 'Bama (32-24, 14-15) have played four times this season. The Tigers won the fifth Capital City Classic in Montgomery, 6-3, on March 5, and the Crimson Tide took two of three at Plainsman Park March 28-30. Auburn has won three straight SEC series and seven of its last 10 games. Alabama, on the other hand, has lost two of three conference series and is 5-5 in its last 10.

On the other side of the bracket, No. 8 Florida and No. 9 Texas A&M square off, and the winner gets No. 1 Vanderbilt in the second round. No. 5 Mississippi State and No. 12 Missouri play for the right to meet No. 4 South Carolina.

Tennessee and Georgia finished 13th and 14th, respectively, in the standings and didn't qualify for a trip to Hoover.

Auburn and Alabama are both trying to make a final push for the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers enter Tuesday's game with an RPI of 32. The Tide checks in at No 29.

Auburn baseball: Conner Kendrick named SEC pitcher of the week

2013-05-20T18:29:10Z

Thanks to his fine performance in a Friday night win against Arkansas, Auburn lefty Conner Kendrick was named SEC pitcher of the week on Monday.

Kendrick played a vital role in Auburn's first SEC shutout win in more than two years, a 3-0 victory over the Razorbacks. He allowed just four hits and one walk in 7 1/3 innings, striking out eight Arkansas hitters. The win improved Kendrick to 5-3 and lowered his season ERA to 2.03.

The JUCO transfer never allowed the Hogs to have much of a scoring threat, as Arkansas had multiple baserunners in just one inning. He struck out batters to end the second, third and sixth innings. Kendrick now has 74 strikeouts this season, which ranks 11th in the SEC, and his 17 earned runs allowed is tied for fifth-fewest in the conference.

Kendrick will get the start Tuesday against Alabama in a single-elimination game at the SEC Tournament. In two appearances against the Crimson Tide this season, he's allowed six runs -- just two earned -- on nine hits and five walks in 11 1/3 innings, and he's struck out 14.

Auburn baseball: Sizing up the Tigers' NCAA Tournament resume

2013-05-20T12:30:09Z

On April 28, Auburn dropped a doubleheader to a bad Missouri team, scoring two total runs and losing the series. At that moment, the Tigers' NCAA hopes -- not that there had been much of any since SEC play began -- seemed pretty much shot. Now, Auburn has closed out the regular season with three consecutive series wins and worked its way into the mix for a regional berth. Should the Tigers be considered favorites to make the NCAA Tournament?

The current resume

RPI ranking (out of 298)	32
SEC RPI ranking (out of 32)	2
Strength of schedule	29
Average non-conference opponent RPI	145.6
Overall record	33-22
SEC record	13-17
vs. RPI top 50	11-15
vs. RPI 101-200	15-6
vs. RPI 200-plus	6-0
Home	22-12
Away	9-10
Neutral	2-0
Last 10	7-3

RPI rankings via warrennolan.com

The good

While Auburn's conference record isn't sparkling, the Tigers are helped by the fact that the SEC is the second-best conference in America. Winning their last three series against top-50 teams Ole Miss (18), Florida (26) and Arkansas (48), plus seven of 10 games doesn't hurt, either. The selection committee usually likes hot teams at the end of the year, and Auburn is streaking in the right direction. The Tigers' 11 wins against RPI top-50 teams are solid, and they don't have any catastrophically bad defeats.

The bad

John Pawlowski's team might not have any truly terrible losses, but dropping six games against teams ranked between 101 and 200 isn't good. The loss on Tuesday to Jacksonville State (108) during the Tigers' stretch of good play will stick out, and early-season defeats at the hands of Kennesaw State (154), Eastern Illinois (175) will give the committee reason for pause.

The ugly

When Auburn drew up its non-conference schedule, it wasn't too ambitious. The Tigers originally had a home series slated against defending national champion Arizona to open the season, but instead, they swapped it out for a four-game set against Maine (150). Other lightweights Auburn faced: three games against Brown (284), two against Alabama State (247), one against Wofford (244) and two against Samford (182). If it comes down to the Tigers and one other team for the final spot, and that other team scheduled real opponents in non-conference action, don't be surprised if Auburn is punished for its cupcake feast.

Survey says

Anyone who values the opinions of national college baseball writers probably feels pretty good about Auburn's chances. Going into the Arkansas contests, the general feeling was that a series win against the Razorbacks would put the Tigers on the good side of the bubble, but winning an SEC Tournament game or two wouldn't hurt.

Mark Etheridge at Southeastern Baseball says Auburn's impressive final three weeks of the regular season likely did the trick and pushed the Tigers over the top. In his latest projections, he has Auburn as the No. 3 seed at the Charlottesville, Va. Regional.

Auburn likely played their way into a Regional taking series from Ole Miss, Florida, and Arkansas the past three weekends. The 13-17 conference record isn't great but it is probably the minimum for an SEC team to reach. Their RPI sits at #33 today and shouldn't slip much win or lose against Alabama (#30) on Tuesday.

At Baseball America, Aaron Fitt is ready to add Auburn to his regional projections, although he says a win Tuesday would make the Tigers feel much better.

The Tigers earned the No. 10 seed in the SEC tournament and will face rival Alabama in Tuesday's single-elimination round; both teams could get at-large bids, but the winner of that game will have to sweat a lot less on Selection Monday.

Kendall Rogers, who writes for Perfect Game, says Auburn greatly helped its case by taking the Arkansas series. While he didn't declare Auburn a tournament team after the final game Saturday, he mentioned multiple times earlier in the week that winning two of three against the Hogs would be enough.

In for now. RT @iggy7555: @kendallrogerspg auburn.In or out right now?
— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogersPG) May 20, 2013

College Baseball Today's Eric Sorenson didn't give much of an opinion in his weekend recap, but in his preview, he made it sound like Auburn might need more than the series win against Arkansas.

What They Need To Do:

Stay hot in SEC play. Winning the series vs. Arkansas will be a great start and the usual advice - go far in the post-season tournament. But also hope this committee is one of those SEC-sympathizers, as they've been from time to time in the past.

In or out?

Will Auburn make the NCAA Tournament? It'll be close, but unless a bunch of big underdogs win conference tournaments and steal automatic bids, the Tigers should be in good shape. Ending the season last in the SEC West and four games under .500 in conference play hurts, but the hot finish and solid RPI should outweigh the negatives on the resume. A loss against Alabama in Hoover would make it close but, barring any huge surprises, more than likely wouldn't knock Auburn out. A win against the Crimson Tide should make the Tigers a lock.

SEC Baseball Tournament 2013: No. 10 Auburn faces No. 7 Alabama in 1st round

2013-05-18T22:22:55Z

Hold on to your butts.

Tennessee and Georgia finished 13th and 14th, respectively, in the standings and didn't qualify for a trip to Hoover.

Auburn and Alabama are both trying to make a final push for the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers enter Tuesday's game with an RPI of 32. The Tide checks in at No 29.

Auburn 11, Arkansas 6: Tigers win home finale behind 8-run fifth

2013-05-18T21:29:49Z

A little bit of rain at Plainsman Park was not enough to dampen the Auburn (33-23, 13-17 SEC) offense, and Trey Cochran-Gill (1-1) turned in a 5 2/3 inning relief performance as the Tigers grabbed a third straight conference series win Saturday afternoon over #11 Arkansas (35-19, 18-11). The first SEC tournament game for Auburn will be around 12:30 pm on Tuesday at the Met in Hoover against Alabama, who Auburn went 2-2 against this year.

After the first two games of the series were pitcher dominated affairs, ending 3-0 and 1-0, this game had offense from the beginning. Arkansas got an early run on the board in the top of the first with a Dominic Ficociello RBI double. Auburn tied the game when Jordan Ebert continued his hot, hot ,hot streak with a bomb cranked to left.

The Hogs would pull ahead 2-1 in the next half-inning on a Brett McAfee leadoff bomb that chased Auburn starter Justin Camp after just two hits and nine batters. Coach John Pawlowski went with Trey Cochran-Gill in relief and he did not disappoint. After Arkansas added one more in the fifth, it was 3-1 but that was the last lead of the day for the Razorbacks.

The huge Auburn half of the fifth opened like many big frames seem to, with a leadoff walk to Ryan Tella. He stole second, held at third on a Blake Austin single and scored on a wild play after a Mitchell Self bunt. Self was caught in a rundown following his bunt between first and second and while the defenders were paying him too much attention, Austin went ahead and scored on the heels of Tella to tie the score, 3-3. Self eventually was safe at second on a throwing error by the pitcher, his last throw of the game.

Patrick Savage eventually plated Self, and Dan Glevenyak's HBP drove in another run, pushing the score to 5-3 and forcing the first UA reliever from the game. Ebert singled home Garrett Cooper and the lead grew to 8-3 on Austin's second hit of the inning, a two-run, two-out single. Self reached again with an RBI single but was thrown out in between first and second to end the inning.

Both sides added single runs over the next two innings, before Arkansas closed the gap to 10-6 and finally pushed TCG from the game after 5 2/3 IP and allowing four runs on six hits and getting five strikeouts. Terrance Dedrick recorded the final four outs for the Tigers, the top of the ninth coming after the Tigers' bats tacked on one more run, making it 11-6.

Three Auburn players grabbed three hits on the day (Savage 3-5, Ebert 3-5, Austin 3-4) against one of the top pitching staffs the conference, if not country, has to offer. Arkansas used seven different relievers, gave up 14 hits, and the 11 runs off the Hogs were a season high for UA opponents. We'll hope the hot bats (ignoring Friday) that date back to the end of the Ole Miss series can continue into next week for the Tigers as they play the biggest games of their season, and careers to date.