After a brief hiatus last week due to me not liking anything at all that Vegas put up, I'm back for more in Week 5. I like alot of games this week, but judging by my record the last time, you should probably bet the other way and prosper. I went with a lot of public lines the first go round, and that's not usually my style, but they looked really good -- maybe too good. As it turns out, they were too good to be true as ALL THREE of my "Thanks for the Free Money" picks lost outright. Woof. But my upset pick (Utah State covering the 14 @ Wisconsin) was a wire to wire cover. So, there's that. Lets hope I can get back on track this week and win a few more games.
Stanford at Washington
Last time around, I didn't exactly pick an outright upset; I just picked Utah State to cover the 14. This week, I'm going with Washington to win straight up at home against Stanford. Stanford opened up as a touchdown favorite and it has held there so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the public money drove this one up a bit since the Stanford upset of USC is still fresh on everyone's mind. Washington is a very tough place to play and the Huskies have one of the better quarterbacks in the nation in Keith Price. Look for a big showing from Price in front of the home crowd to fuel the Huskies' victory. Washington 27 Stanford 23.
THANKS FOR THE FREE MONEY, VEGAS
Clemson (-9) at Boston College
Ol' Cousin Clem opened up as an 11-point favorite and early money on BC has pushed that line down to -9 at the Wynn. The late collapse against Florida State by the (other) Tigers is still fresh in the public's mind. That coupled with BC being at home are probably the main factors in this line dropping. I'm staying away from all that public money and picking Clemson [gulp] in a blowout. (Betting on Clemson? May as well flush that money down the toilet. -ed.) Boston College has been very underwhelming all year, and there's no reason to think they will be able to slow down Clemson on offense. The Eagles may be able to score a few points of their own, but Clemson is one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Clemson 45 Boston College 21.
South Carolina (-21) at Kentucky
Another road favorite, another blowout. Kentucky was absolutely dismantled by Florida last week, while South Carolina did the same to Mizzou. Kentucky is not very good on offense, and is absolutely terrible on defense, especially against the run, something South Carolina does very well. Kentucky will struggle to move the ball and score against the Gamecocks' talented front seven and Carolina should have no problem moving up and down the field against Kentucky. I actually thought this line was a little low, and to my surprise, the line hasn't moved much. Grab it at -21 while it's still there. It will probably move as the weekend nears. South Carolina 41 Kentucky 10.
Louisville (-10.5) at Southern Miss
Louisville was bet at a 98-percent clip last week to cover 13 points at FIU, and to the bookmakers joy, the Cardinals only won by seven. Louisville was coming off some big time blowout games, and it looks like the Cards may have overlooked FIU a bit. I think Charlie Strong will have his team ready to go this weekend, and Southern Miss is reeling under new coach Ellis Johnson. The Golden Eagles have had a very tough schedule and are coming in beat up both mentally and physically. Teddy Bridgewater should have a big game for the Cards, who also have one of the more underrated defenses in the country. Louisville 35 Southern Miss 17.
Picking three road teams is not usually my style, but I think Vegas may have factored in the home field advantage a little too much and left the numbers a little low. Let's hope I'm right, and we can get back on track this week after a very rough start. Right now, I sit at 1-3 against since I started Take The Money and Run. Here's hoping this week is much better.
STAY AWAY. FAR AWAY.
I didn't do this last time, but there are couple games this week I'm staying away from, because Vegas is always up to something, and I feel like these two games are just too weird to bet on.
Texas (-3) at Oklahoma State
This line opened up at Oklahoma State -5.5 and was bet to Texas -3 overnight. Why in the hell it opened with the Pokes as favorites is beyond me, and the public quickly jumped and got Texas as an underdog. This is just a bad, bad number and makes no sense. Numbers that make no sense are no good. Yes, Texas -3 looks like a lock on paper, but this is where the folks in Vegas somehow has it workout for them. If you already bet it when Texas was an underdog, then best of luck. But if you were pondering it now, just stay away. Yes, Texas could blow OK State out, and then I would look stupid, but on the other hand, State could come out and do the same, and you'll be left to wonder how in the hell Vegas always wins. Don't do it.
Texas A&M (-13.5) vs. Arkansas
Yes, Arkansas is a full-blown dumpster fire. Yes, it just lost at home to Rutgers and, unfortunately for Razorback fans, John L. Smith is still the coach. Not a good situation for the Hogs. So, why am I saying stay away from this game? Because had Arkansas not lost Tyler Wilson for the second half of ULM and all of the Alabama game, this season could be much different. Would Arkansas have beaten Alabama? Probably not. Would the Hogs have lost 52-0? Nope. If Arkansas comes into this game 3-1, with its only loss coming against Alabama, it's probably a three-five point favorite. Now, it's a thirteen-point underdog. Vegas opened this line at -11, and with Arkansas' struggles and John L. Smith's press conference debacle, the public has moved this line up to -13.5. If Arkansas doesn't get better fast, then it will get blown out. But if the Razorbacks find a way to right the ship, they will give A&M all it can handle. So, which Arkansas team shows up? I have no idea, and that's why I'm staying away from this one.
Remember, just because you decided not to bet on something doesn't mean you have to turn around and bet the house on something else. If you do that, you and ol' John L. may become best buds in bankruptcy court. Bet smart, y'all. Have fun. Cheers.