clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson's Heisman Trophy Chances and Other Odds Musings

New, 7 comments

In addition to the Watch Lists, it's time for some preseason odds to come out.

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

If you want to know just how high expectations are for Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson and the Auburn offense as a whole, look no further than the current Heisman Trophy odds released by Bovada Sportsbook, today.

Johnson was not on the board when their previous odds were released, but now he has catapulted to near the top of the list with 10/1 odds. Even with his lack of big-game experience, he is listed with the best chance of any other SEC quarterback. He's also tied with UGA RB Nick Chubb for the best odds of any SEC player. Dak Prescott previously held the best odds at 7/1. He has now fallen to 12/1.

Here is the full listing:

Player Position School Current Odds Previous Odds
Trevone Boykin QB TCU 6/1 15/2
Ezekiel Elliott RB Ohio State 7/1 6/1
Braxton Miller QB Ohio State 10/1 18/1
Jeremy Johnson QB Auburn 10/1 Off the board
Nick Chubb RB Georgia 10/1 12/1
Cody Kessler QB USC 12/1 12/1
Dak Prescott QB Mississippi State 12/1 7/1
Leonard Fournette RB LSU 14/1 7/1
Derrick Henry RB Alabama 16/1 14/1
Deshaun Watson QB Clemson 16/1 33/1
Cardale Jones QB Ohio State 20/1 14/1
Paul Perkins RB UCLA 20/1 12/1
Samaje Perine RB Oklahoma 20/1 14/1
Connor Cook QB Michigan State 25/1 20/1
Everett Golson QB Florida State 25/1 Off the board
J.T. Barrett QB Ohio State 25/1 16/1
Royce Freeman RB Oregon 33/1 25/1
Seth Russell QB Baylor 33/1 33/1
Brady Kaaya QB Miami 40/1 33/1
Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 40/1 25/1
D.J. Foster RB Arizona State 40/1 25/1
Dalvin Cook RB Florida State 40/1 33/1
James Connor RB Pitt 40/1 33/1
Jared Goff QB Cal 50/1 50/1
Malik Zaire QB Notre Dame 50/1 Off the board
Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State 50/1 40/1
Nick Wilson RB Arizona 50/1 33/1
Taysom Hill QB BYU 50/1 Off the board
Jacoby Brissett QB NC State 100/1 50/1
Jalen Hurd RB Tennessee 100/1 50/1
Marquise Williams QB North Carolina 100/1 50/1
Scooby Wright LB Arizona 100/1 66/1
Tyler Boyd WR Pitt 100/1 Off the board
Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss Off the board 66/1

Odds and Expectations

Since the UGA game in 1996 until the 2013 BCS Championship Game, Auburn was undefeated when the Tigers scored over 30 points. The record when scoring over 20 points was pretty impressive, as well. Auburn scored 30+ points in every loss last season other than the Mississippi State game. Auburn's offense, as we've said here on the site plenty of times, was not the problem during 2014.

OK, so we can infer from the Bovada odds that big things are expected of Auburn's offense and its quarterback in particular. However, most odds sites still list the over/under on Auburn's win total in the 8.5 region. I'm guessing this means that bookies have little confidence in Will Muschamp's defense.

It's possible that people are still questioning an offense that lost 8 starters from last season, but these Heisman odds show folks expect big production from Johnson. Big production in a Gus Malzahn offense means a lot of points. A lot of points should mean a lot of victories.

In his twelve years as a DC or HC, Will Muschamp has had very few seasons where his defenses didn't rank in the Top 10 in Total Defense. 2006 at Auburn, 2008 at Texas, and 2014 at Florida. Even then his defenses were in the top quarter of defenses in college football. The talent is there for Auburn to have a spectacular defense, but the depth and the pace of play will probably keep it from happening. That being said, I don't think Muschamp needs a Top 10 defense for Auburn to win more than 8.5 games.

I still think that if Auburn's defense is in the Top 30, then the Tigers are in the College Football Playoff. If Will Muschamp puts a classic Coach BOOM D on the field, then Auburn will be close to unstoppable.

Blips still happen. See Auburn's production against UGA last season on offense. However, it definitely seems like oddsmakers are suspecting Auburn's defense is going to struggle mightily this season judging by the odds I've seen.

I suspect they're wrong. I don't give betting advice (because I really have no clue about betting, having never done it), but that sure seems like an easy pick for me that the Tigers will beat that 8.5 win total number.