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Staff Picks - College Football Week 10

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It’s different this week.

NCAA Football: Southern Methodist at Houston Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

We’re changing up the format a bit this week. Rather than reading through 2 sentences from all of us on how much we hate Georgia and Alabama, which rest assured dear reader, we do, the staff’s most experienced gambler will take you through a selection of games for the week. We’ll still have picks from everyone, and you’ll still be able to submit picks in the comments, but this way Crow doesn’t complain about picking games he doesn’t care about. Well, I take that back. He still complains. It’s just that his complaints are limited to the staff Slack channel.

To the picks! Home teams listed first (unless otherwise noted).

Georgia (-6.5) vs Florida (O/U 47)

(in Jacksonville)

SP+ Pick: Georgia by 6.8

I think the question here is whether or not Georgia took the bye week to hash out some of their offensive issues. Can you really change your offensive philosophy in a week? Will Georgia’s receivers be able to get open against Florida’s stingy secondary? I think both are a no. SP+ is one of the few outlets that likes the Dawgs to “cover”, but with rounding it actually predicts a 29-23 final, which would not cover. I think it will be close. Georgia is turning everything into a rock fight right now, and I don’t like taking favorites of a touchdown in low scoring games. Will Florida win? I’m not 100% sure, but when in doubt, the official College & Magnolia position on Georgia is clear.
Florida 24, Georgia 20 (Florida wins outright; under)

Staff Picks

Crow: Gators 21, Dawgs 14 (Florida wins outright; under)
JoshDub: Florida 24, Georgia 17 (Florida wins outright; under)
Drew: Gators 28-24 (Florida wins outright; over)
Ryan: Florida 24-17 (Florida wins outright; under)
Will: Florida 23 Georgia 17 (Florida wins outright; under)
Chief: Dwags 27-23 (Georgia wins; Florida covers; over)
Josh Black: Georgia 24 Florida 17 (The first Georgia cover pick from our biggest UGA hater, go figure; under)
Jack: Florida 23, Georgia 17 (Florida wins outright; under)
Nerd: UGA 31-17 (Georgia covers; over)

#24 Memphis (-6) vs #15 SMU (71.5)

SP+ Pick: Memphis by 12.5

The Mustangs have been a fantastic story this year. Sonny Dykes seems like a perfect culture fit, and I’m really happy that Rhett Lashlee has landed on solid ground. I think this is where the dream dies though. Don’t be put off by Memphis needing Tulsa to miss a field goal last week. Tulsa has played everyone close. This is the same Memphis team that buried Tulane under an avalanche at home. They’re a different team in the Liberty Bowl. I think Gainwell and company put a hurtin’ on ‘em.
Memphis 41, SMU 31 (Memphis covers; over)

Staff Picks

Crow: Smu 38, Memphis 20 (SMU wins outright; under)
JoshDub: SMU 42, Memphis 41 (SMU wins outright; over)
Drew: SMU 48-45 (SMU wins outright; over)
Ryan: SMU 38-31 (SMU wins outright; total of 69 means a nice little under)
Will: Memphis 48 SMU 45 (Memphis wins; SMU covers; over)
Chief: Stangs 38-31 (SMU wins outright; 69 and under just like his O&T cohost)
Josh Black: Memphis 41 SMU 38 (Memphis wins; SMU covers; over)
Jack: SMU 38, Memphis 34 (SMU wins outright; over by the hook)
Nerd: SMU 42-41 (SMU wins outright; over)

USC (+4.5) vs #7 Oregon (O/U 62.5)

SP+ Pick: Oregon by 3.3

Speaking of teams that are different at home, here’s USC. The Trojans have been much more comfortable in the Coliseum this season. But backing them means backing a true freshman against Oregon’s salty defense. They’ve been beaten by one, I don’t think they’ll be beaten by another. I think this one will be relatively low-scoring, for the Pac-12 anyway.
Oregon 28, USC 24 (Oregon wins; USC covers; under)

Staff Picks

Crow: Oregon 33, SC 21 (Oregon covers; under)
JoshDub: Oregon 45, USC 14 (Oregon covers; under)
Drew: Oregon 34-28 (Oregon covers; under by the hook)
Ryan: Oregon 31-28 (Oregon wins; USC covers; under)
Will: Oregon 34 USC 14 (Oregon covers; under)
Chief: Ducks 31-27 (Oregon wins; USC covers; under)
Josh Black: Oregon 35 USC 27 (Oregon covers; under by the hook)
Jack: Oregon 35, USC 14 (Oregon covers; under)
Nerd: Ducks 35-24 (Oregon covers; under)

Tennessee (-12) vs UAB (O/U 47.5)

SP+ Pick: Tennessee by 9.3

Alright I give. I think Tennessee is actually starting to figure some things out. This is not the same team that lost to Georgia State and BYU. UAB is 6-1, but the wins are against Alabama State and teams with the following rankings in SP+: 128, 125, 123, 126, and 124. I think Tennessee exercises some non-conference demons here.
Tennessee 38, UAB 13 (Tennessee covers; over)

Staff Picks

Crow: UAB 21, Tennessee 20 (UAB wins outright; under)
JoshDub: Tennessee 41, UAB 21 (Tennessee covers; over)
Drew: Vols 38-28 (Tennessee wins; UAB covers; over)
Ryan: UAB 24-18 (UAB wins outright; under)
Will: Tennessee 27 UAB 13 (Tennessee covers; under)
Chief: Vols 30-17 (Tennessee covers; under by the hook)
Josh Black: Tennessee 38 UAB 24 (Tennessee covers; over)
Jack: Tennessee 28, UAB 18 (Tennessee wins; UAB covers; under)
Nerd: Vols 45-20 (Tennessee covers; over)

Florida State (-3.5) vs Miami (O/U 46.5)

SP+ Pick: Miami by 3.8

Miami might be one of the unluckiest teams in the country. They’ve found new and exciting ways to lose football games. Although, they deserve credit for doing something some schools from Florida are incapable of: beating Pitt. Both of these teams have giant flaws. Neither offense is very good at all, and they have huge problems when they attempt to pass the ball. In no way do I want to lay any points on this one, but I’ll pick the winner based on the best athlete in the contest. That athlete is Cam Akers.
Florida State 19, Miami 17 (FSU wins; Miami covers; under)

Staff Picks

Crow: Miami 22, FSU 20 (Miami wins outright; under)
JoshDub: Miami 28, Florida State 26 (Miami wins outright; over)
Drew: Miami 19-16 and maniacal laughter (Miami wins outright; under)
Ryan: FSU 25-24 (FSU wins; Miami covers; over)
Will: Florida State 20 Miami 16 (FSU covers; under)
Chief: Canes 20-17 (Miami wins outright; under)
Josh Black: Miami 17 FSU 16 (Miami wins outright; under)
Jack: Miami 26, Florida State 25 (Miami wins outright; over)
Nerd: Canes 28-27 (Miami wins outright; over)