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Staff Picks - College Football Week 12

Let’s forget last week happened

NCAA Football: Baylor at Texas Christian Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Record Last Week: 2-3 ATS; 3-2 Totals; 5-5 overall
Record for the Season: 67-54-1 overall

No harm, no foul last week. Nothing to get excited about, but if you’ve ever been to Vegas, you know that stepping away from the table at a net zero is pretty good. However, when you’re sitting at a table in the desert, they bring you free cocktails. You get to enjoy the company of random strangers from all over the world. Meanwhile I had to sit and watch Arkansas give up on another season while drinking Kewrs Light I bought with my own money. Chad Morris needs to send our tailgate a keg of Rocky Mountain refreshment with all that buyout money. I earned it with my successful reverse jinx of the tahd last week.

No G5 games in the ledger this week, but we do have some intrigue from outside the SEC as well as the highest line for a road favorite I’ve ever seen.

Florida (-7) @ Missouri (O/U 51)

SP+ Pick: Florida -7.6

Kelly Bryant should be back, and Missouri is a much better team at home. Florida got a glorified scrimmage against Vanderbilt last week, so they should be well rested. I think Florida is hitting their stride, but I’m not sure about backing a road favorite with how the Other Other Tigers have been playing at home.
Florida 26, Missouri 20 (Florida wins; Missouri covers; under)

Jack: Missouri 20 vs Florida 27 (Florida wins; push...I...ok buddy; under)
Josh Black: Florida 34 Mizzou 14 (Florida covers; under)
Josh Dub: Missouri 24, Florida 38 (Florida covers; over)
Drew: Gatas 38-17 (Florida covers; over)
Ryan: Florida 38-17 (a popular score...Florida covers; over)
Crow: Florida 30 miz 22 (Florida covers; over)
Nerd: UF 34 MIZZOU 21 (Florida covers; over)
Chief: Gators 31, Tigers 23 (Florida covers; over)
Dr Will: Florida 31 Missouri 20 (Florida covers; a push on the know they don’t pay you double for that, right?)

Minnesota @ Iowa (-3) (O/U 44.5)

SP+ Pick: Minnesota -2.6

I’ll admit I was wrong on the Gophers last week. Tanner Morgan was fantastic through the air, and their defense made plays when they needed to make them. Those defensive plays usually involved uncalled DPI, but if you know they’re calling the game a certain way, you might as well take advantage.

This week the show goes on the road to a Standard Iowa. This is an Iowa with a pretty good defense, enough offense to score against mediocre to bad defenses, and a home crowd that makes them tough to beat. SP+ and Vegas are on different sides of this one. I’ll go with the confident Gophers and the math.
Minnesota 24, Iowa 21 (Minnesota wins outright; over by the hook)

Staff Picks

Jack: Iowa 17 vs Minnesota 24 (Minnesota wins outright; under)
Josh Black: Iowa 24 Minnesota 20 (Iowa covers; under by the hook)
Josh Dub: Iowa 24, Minnesota 22 (Iowa wins; Minnesota covers; over)
Drew: Minnesota 24-14 (Minnesota wins outright; under)
Ryan: Minnesota 24-13 (Minnesota wins outright; under)
Crow: Minnesota 28 iowa 20 (Minnesota wins outright; over)
Nerd: Gophers 23 Hawkeyes 17 (Minnesota wins outright; under)
Chief: Minnesota 24, Iowa 21 (Minnesota wins outright; over)
Dr Will: Minnesota 27 Iowa 20 (Minnesota wins outright; over)

Navy @ Notre Dame (-7) (O/U 54.5)

SP+ Pick: Navy +4.2

This has been a great bounce-back year for the Midshipmen. Not only are they the favorites to reclaim the Commander In Chief’s Trophy, they stand an excellent chance of being the highest rated G5 team. That honor would come with a New Year’s 6 bowl bid. Winning this game could lock it up, but even playing the Irish close could be enough to keep them ahead of others if things break their way. I just don’t think they have the athletes to keep up with a solid Notre Dame team. I think the lack of big-play-ability from the Irish keeps this thing close to the number and under the total though.
Notre Dame 26, Navy 16 (Notre Dame covers; under)

Staff Picks
Jack: Notre Dame 31 vs Navy 26 (Notre Dame wins; Navy covers; over)
Josh Black: Notre Dame 35 Navy 27 (Notre Dame covers; over)
Josh Dub: Notre Dame 24, Navy 31 (Navy wins outright; over)
Drew: ND 20-17 (Notre Dame wins; Navy covers; under)
Ryan: Navy 31-28 (Navy wins outright; over)
Crow: Navy 20 Nd 19 (Navy wins outright; under)
Nerd: Irish 31 Navy 21 (Notre Dame covers; over)
Chief: Catholics 33, Seamen 26 (Willingly and knowingly selected push; over)
Dr Will: Notre Dame 27 Navy 21 (Notre Dame wins; Navy covers; under)

Oklahoma (-10) @ Baylor (O/U 67)

SP+ Pick: Baylor +7.7

Both of these teams have been playing with fire. Oklahoma has already lost once, and they needed to stop a 2-point try from Iowa State to keep from losing their second game last week. Baylor trailed 9-0 and needed multiple overtimes to get past a TCU team that might not make a bowl (though I admit that rivalry games can get hairy). I just don’t think Baylor’s offense can take advantage of Oklahoma’s porous defense. The Bears have struggled along the line, and if there’s one thing Oklahoma can do on defense, it’s rush the passer.
Oklahoma 41, Baylor 20 (Oklahoma covers; under)

Staff Picks

Jack: Baylor 28 vs Oklahoma 45 (Oklahoma covers; over)
Josh Black: Oklahoma 41 Baylor 24 (Oklahoma covers; under)
Josh Dub: Baylor 45, Oklahoma 52 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; over)
Drew: Oklahoma 23-21 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; under)
Ryan: Oklahoma 45-38 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; over)
Crow: Ou 35 bu 20 (Oklahoma covers; under)
Nerd: Oklahoma 48 Baylor 31 (Oklahoma covers; over)
Chief: OU 34, Bears 27 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; under)
Dr Will: Oklahoma 41 Baylor 28 (Oklahoma covers; a nice little over)

Ohio State (-52) @ Rutgers (O/U 62)

SP+ Pick: Rutgers +46.1

This one is in here because the line fascinates us. In order to push the line and the total, in other words “what do they think the final score will be?”, the Vegas pick is Ohio State 57, Rutgers 5. This is also the largest spread I can ever remember. There have been bigger mismatches. There have even been bigger mismatches this season. But those are in paycheck games. This is a conference game. More importantly for the line, this is a conference game involving one of the worst P5 teams in history against a team that seems hell-bent on lighting every house on fire and walking away from the ashes as they stroll to the playoffs. In some places this line has gotten as high as 53. To be honest, I think it would have to get into the 60s for me to consider placing money on Rutgers. I just wouldn’t feel comfortable until then.
Ohio State 62, Rutgers 7 (Ohio State covers; over)

Staff Picks

Jack: Rutgers 7 vs Ohio State 55 (OSU wins; Rutgers covers; push...I swear sometimes I can’t help these guys)
Josh Black: Ohio State 63 Rutgers 0 (OSU covers; over)
Josh Dub: Ohio State 84, Rutgers 0 (OSU covers; over)
Drew: An OSU 63-3 (OSU covers; over)
Ryan: Ohio State 55-9 (OSU wins; Rutgers covers; over)
Crow: Buckeyes 70 Rutgers 7 (OSU covers; over)
Nerd: Ohio State 69 Rutgers 10 (OSU covers; over)
Chief: Suckeyes 63, Knights 3 (OSU covers; over)
Dr Will: Ohio State 66 Rutgers 0 (OSU covers; over)