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Staff Picks - College Football Week 13

Let’s make more total bets

NCAA Football: Wisconsin at Ohio State Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Record Last Week: 1-5 ATS; 5-1 Totals; 6-6 overall
Record for the Season: 73-60-1 overall

Look, I never said you should wager based on my picks, but if you did, I hope you only paid attention to the totals. To be honest most of my losses were of the “I think it might be closer” variety. That’s the rub of picking against the spread though. Picking winners is easy.

Some slim pickings around the college football world this week. Let’s go with the week’s marquee game, the week’s “marquee” SEC games, and a look at our undead friends from the Magic City.

Ohio State (-18) vs Penn State (O/U 59.5)

SP+ Pick: Penn State +14.7

This line has been climbing all week. While this is the “Game of the Week”, most of the chatter has been “Does Penn State actually have a chance in this game?” The Nittany Lions have struggled to stop the big play this year, and Ohio State generates a ton of them. Penn State has struggled without Noah Cain, and Ohio State’s defense has been incredible this year. Add that to Ohio State playing at home and the emotions that will come with the return of Chase Young, and I think the smart play is to take Ohio State all the way up to three touchdowns.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 13 (Ohio State covers; under)

Staff Picks

Ryan: 35-30 Ohio State (OSU wins; PSU covers; over)
Dr Will: Ohio State 34 Penn State 20 (OSU wins; PSU covers; under)
Jack: Ohio State 38 (-18) vs Penn State 24 (OSU wins; PSU covers; over)
Drew: An OSU 34-17 (OSU wins; PSU covers; under)
Nerd: Ohio State 42 Penn State 21 (OSU covers; over)
Josh Dub: Ohio State 40, Penn State 21 (OSU covers; over)
Chief: Ohio State 34, Penn State 17 (OSU wins; PSU covers; under)
Josh Black: Ohio State 48 Penn State 21 (OSU covers; a very nice over)
Crow: Bucks 40 PSU 20 (OSU covers; over by the hook)

Georgia (-13) vs Texas A&M (O/U 47)

SP+ Pick: Texas A&M +12.6

The same weather that is going to hit Auburn today will be hitting Athens around the time this one kicks off. Between that and the snails pace that both of these teams try to play with, I’m not sure you can make the under low enough. In that situation, it’s best to take the points.
Georgia 20, Texas A&M 10 (UGA wins; A&M covers; under)

Staff Picks

Ryan: 30-14 UGA (UGA covers; under)
Dr Will: Texas A&M 24 Georgia 21 (A&M wins outright; under)
Jack: Georgia 23 (-13) vs Texas A&M 21 (UGA wins; A&M covers; under)
Drew: Georgia 20-14 (UGA wins; A&M covers; under)
Nerd: UGA 24 A&M 6 (UGA covers; under)
Josh Dub: Georgia 21, Texas A&M 24 (A&M wins outright; under)
Chief: Georgia 24, Texas A&M 19 (UGA wins; A&M covers; under)
Josh Black: Georgia 27 A&M 10 (UGA covers; under)
Crow: AGGY 28 Dwags 21 (A&M wins outright; over)

LSU (-44) vs Arkansas (O/U 70.5)

SP+ Pick: Arkansas +41.7

This week’s ridiculous spread features the opposite ends of the SEC. I have conflicting thoughts on this one. Auburn beat this Arkansas team by 41 in Fayetteville, and this one is in Baton Rouge. However, LSU’s defense hasn’t been great, and I’m always wary of an interim coach bounce. I’m going to lay the points, but I don’t feel good about it.
LSU 59, Arkansas 13 (LSU covers; over)

Staff Picks

Ryan: 52-10 LSU (LSU wins; Arkansas covers; under)
Dr Will: LSU 66 Arkansas 13 (LSU covers; over)
Jack: LSU 59 (-44) vs Arkansas 20 (LSU wins; Arkansas covers; over)
Drew: LSU 64-17 (LSU covers; over)
Nerd: LSU 66 Hogs 28 (LOL) (LSU wins; Arkansas covers; over)
Josh Dub: LSU 42, Arkansas 10 (LSU wins; Arkansas covers; under)
Chief: LSU 52, Arkansas 0 (LSU covers; under)
Josh Black: LSU 69 Arkansas 10 (LSU covers; over)
Crow: LSU 99 Arkansas 9 (LSU covers; just a hair over...I kinda want to see this)

UAB (-6) vs Louisiana Tech (O/U 44)

SP+ Pick: LA Tech +1.1

Here’s another limitation of SP+. It doesn’t know the Bulldogs are still missing their starting quarterback and leading receiver. The fact that it still favors UAB to win makes me feel comfortable taking the home-standing Blazers. This one will be closer to mid-afternoon, and the rain should be gone by then, so I’ll lean on the over.
UAB 29, LT 21 (UAB covers; over)

Staff Picks

Ryan: 31-24 LT (LT wins outright; over)
Dr Will: UAB 27 LA Tech 19 (UAB covers; over)
Jack: UAB 35 (-6) vs La Tech 27 (UAB covers; over)
Drew: Bulldogs 24-20 (LT wins outright; push...I swear y’all....)
Nerd: Uh... I guess Blazers 23 La Tech 21 (STOP DISRESPECTING THE BLAZERS...UAB wins; LT covers; push...I can’t help them)
Josh Dub: La Tech 35, UAB 21 (LT wins outright; over)
Chief: La Tech 35, UAB 21 (LT wins outright; over)
Josh Black: UAB 26 La. Tech 21 (UAB wins; LT covers; over)
Crow: La Tech 29 UAB 28 (LT wins outright; over)

Baylor (-5.5) vs Texas (O/U 59.5)

SP+ Pick: Baylor -8.9

This is the only game in our selection where SP+ likes the favorite to cover. Of course SP+ saw a close loss to Oklahoma last week, rather than blowing a 28-3 lead. I mean seriously, what group of hopeless losers would blow a 28-3 in front of a national audience? Certainly no team I could stand to cheer for. You would become a national laughing stock and a source for jokes on the level of “Golden State blew a 3-1 lead”.

Meanwhile, Texas managed to lose a close one to Iowa State last week. I just can’t bring myself to take them laying such a small line against a team that’s proven to be as good as Baylor has, blown 25 point leads or not.
Baylor 27, Texas 21 (Baylor covers; under)

Staff Picks

Ryan: 38-30 Tejas (Texas wins outright; over)
Dr Will: Texas 27 Baylor 24 (Texas wins outright; under)
Jack: Baylor 30 (-5.5) vs Texas 27 (Baylor wins; Texas covers; under)
Drew: Baylor 24-16 (Baylor covers; under)
Nerd: Texas 38 Baylor 31 (Texas wins outright; a very nice over)
Josh Dub: Baylor 38, Texas 28 (Baylor covers; over)
Chief: Baylor 35, Texas 27 (Baylor covers; over)
Josh Black: Baylor 41 Texas 28 (Baylor covers; over)
Crow: Bears 38 Horns 35 (Baylor wins; Texas covers; over)