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Staff Picks - Championship Week

Just because Auburn isn’t playing doesn’t mean we can’t hate Georgia

NCAA Football: Cincinnati at Memphis Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Record Last Week: 4-3 ATS; 2-5 Totals; 6-8 overall
Record for the Season: 86-72-2 overall; 53.8%

Well the run on totals had to end somewhere. I mean, who could have foreseen Auburn nearly covering the Iron Bowl’s total by itself, the Commonwealth Cup turning into a shootout, or LSU’s defense putting Texas A&M in a phone booth for 60 minutes? These things happen. We’ll get em this week.

This week happens to be Championship Week. The lack of selection makes it easy to select everything. We went with all of the power conference championship games on Saturday, along with the AAC rematch, which gives me another chance to get the Memphis/Cincinnati pick right.

All games except Memphis/Cincinnati are neutral site games.

Oklahoma (-9.5) vs Baylor (O/U 64)

SP+ Pick: Baylor +6.4

Our first rematch is a chance for Oklahoma to prove they belong in the playoff. I suppose it is for Baylor as well, but they would have to dominate this game, and I just don’t see that happening. Baylor did almost everything right for a while against the Sooners in Waco, but they couldn’t hold on to a 28-3 lead. I think Oklahoma comes out with their hair on fire in this one. Baylor may keep it close after the first quarter, but it won’t be enough to get inside the number or the under.
Oklahoma 41, Baylor 28 (Oklahoma covers; a nice over)

Staff Picks

Josh Dub: Oklahoma 42, Baylor 38 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; over)
Jack: Oklahoma 38 (-9.5) vs Baylor 21 (Oklahoma covers; under)
AU Nerd: Sooners 45 Baylor 35 (Oklahoma covers; over)
Drew Mac: Sooners 38-31 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; a nice little over)
Dr Will: Oklahoma 37 Baylor 27 (Oklahoma covers; push...y’all see what I’m dealing with here?)
Josh Black: Oklahoma 34 Baylor 27 (Oklahoma wins; Baylor covers; under)
Chief: UO Which Stands for the University of Oklahoma 46, Baptist Bears 27 (Oklahoma covers; over)

Memphis (-9) vs Cincinnati (O/U 57.5)

SP+ Pick: Memphis -15.4

Last week’s line was 11.5, and Memphis only won by 10. Now they drop the line to 9. Shoot they even dropped the total to a half-point inside last week’s final. Since Memphis needed the game more than Cincinnati, I wonder if they had to empty the barrel a bit more in Game 1. I still like Memphis to win, and SP+ is usually dead-on when it likes one side by 3 or more vs the Vegas line. Shoot, I’m tempted to just pick last week’s score of 34-24, but I think this one slides under.
Memphis 31, Cincinnati 21 (Memphis covers; under)

Staff Picks

Josh Dub: Memphis 28, Cincinnati 14 (Memphis covers; under)
Jack: Memphis 37 (-9) vs Cincinnati 28 (push...still with this?; over)
AU Nerd: Cincy 42 Memphis 38 (Cincinnati wins outright; over)
Drew Mac: Tiggers 38-20 (Memphis covers; over by the hook)
Dr Will: Cincinnati 34 Memphis 27 (Cincinnati wins outright; over)
Josh Black: Memphis 31 Cincinnati 30 (Memphis wins; Cincinnati covers; over)
Chief: Tigres 40, ManBearPigs 23 (Memphis covers; over)

LSU (-7) vs Georgia (O/U 54.5)

SP+ Pick: Georgia -2.6

Remember what I said about SP+ and a 3 point difference? Yeah, none of us care on this one. Georgia has faced nothing like this offense all season, and I just don’t see them putting up enough points without Cager, without Picken$ for a half, and with a probably hobbled Swift. I don’t think it’s an absolute route, but I that’s only so I can take the under. #STTDB
LSU 34, Georgia 17 (LSU covers; under)

Staff Picks

Josh Dub: LSU 45, Georgia 14 (LSU covers; over)
Jack: LSU 34 (-7) vs Georgia 23 (LSU covers; over)
AU Nerd: LSU 42 UGA 31 (LSU covers; over)
Drew Mac: Tiggers 48-28 (LSU covers; over)
Dr Will: LSU 38 Georgia 17 (LSU covers; over)
Josh Black: LSU 38 Georgia 21 (LSU covers; over)
Chief: Tahgahs 27, Dwags 17 (LSU covers; under)

Ohio State (-16.5) vs Wisconsin (O/U 56)

SP+ Pick: Wisconsin +14.1

How does Wisconsin keep this close? Their defense isn’t bad, but they fell apart in the second half of the first round. Taylor running the ball could play keepaway from the Buckeyes, but Ohio State knows that too. That means Wisconsin probably has to take some shots. I really don’t like their chances of hitting those. Between that and the groove that Ohio State seemed to hit around the second quarter of the game last week, I like them to cover. It’s just a matter of whether or not Wisconsin can score enough to hit the over.
Ohio State 42, Wisconsin 21 (OSU covers; over)

Staff Picks

Josh Dub: Ohio State 41, Wisconsin 21 (OSU covers; over)
Jack: Ohio State 40 (-16.5) vs Wisconsin 17 (OSU covers; over)
AU Nerd: Ohio State 41 Wiscy 20 (OSU covers; over)
Drew Mac: Bucks 42-28 (OSU wins; Wisconsin covers; over)
Dr Will: Ohio State 42 Wisconsin 17 (OSU covers; over)
Josh Black: Ohio State 45 Wisconsin 13 (OSU covers; over)
Chief: Suckeyes 42, Wisku 27 (OSU wins; Wisconsin covers; over)

Clemson (-28) vs Virginia (O/U 57)

SP+ Pick: Virginia +21

Pay no attention to SP+. This is Clemson in Championship Mode. The only way Virginia covers this is if they score a ton once Dabo’s kid starts playing. Virginia’s defense is pretty good, but I don’t think it’ll be enough. To be honest I’m wondering whether Virginia can score enough to get it into the over. I say they do, but it’ll be close.
Clemson 49, Virginia 10 (Clemson covers; over)

Staff Picks

Josh Dub: Clemson 56, Virginia 21 (Clemson covers; over)
Jack: Clemson 49 (-28) vs Virginia 14 (Clemson covers; over)
AU Nerd: Clemson 35 UVA 10 (Clemson wins; UVA covers; under)
Drew Mac: Tiggers 52-17 (Clemson covers; another nice over)
Dr Will: Clemson 52 Virginia 14 (Clemson covers; over)
Josh Black: Clemson 59 Virginia 20 (Clemson covers; over)
Chief: Fake Auburn 38, F#@* Virginia 17 (Clemson wins; Virginia covers; under)