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SEC Picks - Week 4

lol they postponed Florida/LSU again

NCAA Football: Arkansas at Auburn John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

So we made it through a hurricane week without a postponement or even a weather delay. Now we have the COVID week. We’re missing two games, one head coach has tested positive, and we’ve heard nothing out of South Carolina or Texas A&M after they played against teams that have been ravaged by positive tests and contact tracing. Wheeeeee.

So far this year, defense has been nearly optional. Alabama and Ole Miss wound up hitting the original OVER before it was dropped 10 points due to Hurricane Delta. As a result we have three totals in the 50s and one all the way up at 76.5. You can guess which team is involved there. HINT: it’s the one that stopped their opponent from gaining just 41 yards last week.

Current Standings

Josh Black: 25-17 (8-6 last week)
Chief: 21-21 (5-9 last week)
Crow: 21-21 (7-7 last week)
Ryan: 21-21 (7-7 last week)
Jack: 19-23 (5-9 last week)
Jonesy: 19-23 (6-8 last week)
Josh W: 19-23 (6-8 last week)
Nerd: 18-24 (7-7 last week)
Dr Will: 16-26 (5-9 last week)
Drew Mac: 14-28 (5-9 last week)

It’s a good thing we don’t do this for a living. If we did, Drew would be living on Top Ramen.

LSU @ Florida (-13) (O/U 71)

Dan Mullen says he wants 90,000 people in the Swamp and then 80% of his football team either has COVID or is out due to contact tracing. 2020 remains undefeated.

Also I am SHOCKED that Megan Mullen got it too. SHOCKED I TELL YOU.

Staff Picks:
Ryan: Florida 40-30 (Ryan got it in early)
Jack: Oh, postponed. If they somehow play, Florida 42-24 (Jack acknowledges that Dan Mullen is completely unpredictable)
Josh W: nope
Drew Mac: I will let ya know on December 11th.
Josh B: COVID-19 100, Dan Mullen’s opinions on super spreading events 0
Crow: Covid-19 35 Dan Mullen 20
Chief: Florida 45-28 (lol Chief sent this in after the postponement)

Kentucky @ Tennessee (-6) (O/U 46)

SP+ Pick: Kentucky +5.2; over (49)

This is the only total line under 50. Tennessee isn’t necessarily lightning-quick on offense, and Kentucky prefers to shorten the game. I’m just about to the point where we should just throw out what teams do on offense against Georgia, because there’s no one else in the conference who comes close to them right now. Tennessee was pretty good against South Carolina, and they were ruthless against Mizzou. They did struggle a bit against the run against Georgia (3.9 yards per carry jumps to 4.5 if you take out the 30 yards they lost on a bad shotgun snap), but it’s not like Kentucky lit MSU on fire last week. Let’s not overcomplicate things: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 20 (Tennessee wins and covers; over)

Staff Picks:

Ryan: Tennessee 24-17 (Tennessee wins and covers; under)
Jack: Tennessee 30-14 (Tennessee wins and covers; under)
Josh W: Kentucky 25, Tennessee 28 (Tennessee wins, Kentucky covers; over)
AUNerd: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 27 (Tennessee wins, Kentucky covers; over)
Drew Mac: 30-21 Vols (Tennessee wins and covers; over)
Josh B: Tennessee 26, Kentucky 17 (Tennessee wins and covers; under)
Crow: Kentucky 24-20 (Kentucky wins outright; under)
Chief: Kentucky 26 - Tennessee 23 (Kentucky wins outright; over)
Dr Will: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 17 (Tennessee wins and covers; over)

Ole Miss (-3) @ Arkansas (O/U 76.5)

SP+ Pick: Ole Miss -4.6; under (56)

I think we can say at this point that Arkansas’s defense is not bad. They held down Georgia, admittedly before they made a pivotal quarterback change. They gave everyone the blueprint for defending Mississippi State (or at least adapted the one that Washington used against WSU). They held Auburn enough in the second half for their offense to get their issues figured out and at least make it a game. But all 3 of those prior opponents don’t stress a defense’s depth like Ole Miss does. While Arkansas has done well to limit explosive plays, I could see them breaking in the second half as Ole Miss continues to keep the hammer down.

Ole Miss has been terrible against the run this year, but while I think Arkansas will move the ball on the ground, I don’t see them moving it as well as other offenses have against the Rebels. That just puts their defense out there over and over again. I think Ole Miss covers easily. SP+ being twenty points different on the total is enough to convince me. Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 33 (Ole Miss wins and covers; under)

Staff Picks:

Ryan: Arkansas 41-40 (Arkansas wins outright; over)
Jack: Ole Miss 41-34 (Ole Miss wins and covers; under)
Josh W: Ole Miss 52, Arkansas 31 (Ole Miss wins and covers; over)
AUNerd: Arkansas 42, Ole Miss 38 (Arkansas wins outright, over)
Drew Mac: 38-28 Rebel/Black Bear/Shark/Locomotives (Ole Miss wins and covers; under)
Josh B: Arkansas 41, Ole Miss 38 (Arkansas wins outright; over)
Crow: Arkansas 35-34 (Arkansas wins outright; a nice little under)
Chief: Ole Miss 38 - Arkansas 33 (Ole Miss wins and covers; under)
Dr Will: Ole Miss 48, Arkansas 38 (Ole Miss wins and covers; over)

Texas A&M (-6.5) @ Mississippi State (O/U 54)

SP+ Pick: Texas A&M -6.6; over (57)

Three weeks after MSU’s torching of LSU in Baton Rouge, they’ve scored all of 16 points against Arkansas and Kentucky. Two of those came when UK’s punter made the smart call to kick a botched punt out of the back of the endzone. A&M might actually have the worst defense between them, Arkansas, and Kentucky, but they have the blueprint and they’re very opportunistic. I don’t see MSU getting things figured out unless Leach just decides to hand Kylin Hill the ball 20 times.

State’s defense hasn’t been the problem at all. They kept Arkansas under 300 yards. They held Kentucky to 3 yards per play (granted that jumps to 3.9 if you take out the 48 UK lost on that safety). Still, if Mond’s success against Florida wasn’t a factor of Florida’s “defense”, I think covering a touchdown in Starkville shouldn’t be a problem. I think the Air Raid works enough for MSU to help cover the over though. Texas A&M 41, MSU 21 (Texas A&M wins and covers; over)

Staff Picks:

Ryan: TAMU 34-14 (Texas A&M wins and covers; under)
Jack: A&M 35-17 (Texas A&M wins and covers; under)
Josh W: Texas A&M 42, Mississippi State 7 (Texas A&M wins and covers; under)
AUNerd: Texas A&M 35, Mississippi State 20 (Texas A&M wins and covers; over)
Drew Mac: 38-17 Aggies (Texas A&M wins and covers; over)
Josh B: A&M 38, Mississippi State 13 (Texas A&M wins and covers; under)
Crow: Aggy 36-4 (Texas A&M wins and covers; under; State somehow gets more hilarious)
Chief: State 36 - A&M 28 (MSU wins outright; over)
Dr Will: Texas A&M 42, Miss State 24 (Texas A&M wins and covers; over)

Georgia @ Alabama (-6) (O/U 57)

SP+ Pick: Georgia +4.6; under (52)

idk who cares. I’m not going to watch it.

Seriously, I haven’t watched Alabama play a full game against someone other than Auburn since they lost to Ole Miss in 2015. I find their brand of football boring more often than not. I think Georgia has everything needed to beat this Alabama team, but they’re still Georgia, so Alabama 28, Georgia 21 (Alabama wins and covers; under)

Staff Picks:
Ryan: Alabama 31-30 (Alabama wins, Georgia covers; over)
Jack: Georgia 28-27 (Georgia wins outright; under)
Josh W: Georgia 22, Alabama 30 (Alabama wins and covers; under)
AUNerd: UGA 34, Bama 31 (Georgia wins outright; over)
Drew Mac: 24-20 uat (Alabama wins, Georgia covers; under)
Josh B: Alabama 35, Georgia 27 (Alabama wins and covers; over)
Crow: Georgia 44 39 (Georgia wins outright; over)
Chief: Georgia 30-Alabama 28 (Georgia wins outright; over)
Dr Will: Georgia 31, Alabama 28 (Georgia wins outright; over)